possible aurora

[astronymonkey]

Hi folks,

just a heads up. Early this morning the sun released a huge x4.9 flare which is the third biggest in this solar cycle. Unfortunately the flare was on the edge of the disc but the associated coronal mass ejection does appear to have an earth directed component.

The flare and cme appears to have been travelling at 2000km per sec which would mean it may reach us tonight although spaceweatherlive.com suggests it will be 2-3 days which seems a bit too long for me although the cme may slow significantly.

although most of the cme isnt coming towards us there is a possibility that this could trigger mid latitude auroras.

Cheers

[LukeSkywatcher]

I read about this today. It was not ejected directly towards us, so probably wont show up too much over the UK,Ireland....................................

Never say never though if you are far enough north.

[astronymonkey]

Hi paul, spaceweatherlive is suggesting that this may well hit earth, despite not being directly directed towards us.......

SpaceWeatherLive Report

X4.97 solar flare - First CME analysis

LASCO imagery is dripping in and an asymmetrical full halo CME can be seen. This CME was launched by a X4.9 solar flare from region 1990 near the eastern limb. It is likely that this CME will arrive at Earth as a glancing blow somewhere during the second half of February 27.

The >10MeV protons are slowly rising and might reach the S1 threshold. EPAM low-energy protons and electrons are also currently rising, confirming that the CME indeed has an earth directed componment

So definitely worth watching thr datafeeds over the next 48hrs.

cheers

[LukeSkywatcher]

Absolutely worth keeping an eye out for. It was a monster of a CME. 

[m0rt]

For ref - link to an article that has a video of the event: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/02/26/sun_solar_flare_x4_9/

[astronymonkey]

Just as a heads up, the CME that came from this flare is expected to arrive in the next few hours. Space weather live has the following update....

The low-energy protons as measured by ACE EPAM are steadily rising which indicates the X4.9 CME is getting closer to Earth. A glancing blow is expected to arrive at Earth later today. NOAA is forecasting a G1 geomagnetic storm but the European SIDC is forecasting at most active conditions (Kp4) which to us seems the more likely scenario. Nevertheless, follow the data and forecasts on www.spaceweatherlive.com for the latest info!

As these things are so unpredicatable its definately worth having a look north , close to midnight tonight to see if there is anything happening.

Cheers

[Ptarmigan]

Radio aurora is being reported on amateur radio ( 50 and 144 MHz bands) at mid-lattitudes.

Anyone in the north with a clear sky deffo worth having a look for visuals !

[Ptarmigan]

NOAA reporting Kp=5

WingKp model 4hr predict for Kp of 7 , oooooooooh fingers and everything xxed !

At that rate we in the south might get a look-in !

[astronymonkey]

Despite not being a fan of the wing kp 4 hr forecast due to not being that accurate the 1 hr forcast is showing 5.66 whichmis really promising.

The kiruna magnetometer has dropped about 700nt in the last one and a half hours and still dropping ... a drop of 1200 would be indicative of mid latitude visual aurora .

initially a max kp of 4 was forecast but we passed this about 1 hr ago so fingers crossed !

kp6 is needed for Manchester and kp7 for london so you never know .

cheers

[Ptarmigan]

Despite not being a fan of the wing kp 4 hr forecast due to not being that accurate

Which do you pref. ?

I dont start getting excited till I see mid-lat reports on amateur radio ( or hear it for myself )

Got lots of sightings from near Bristol over the years that way

(prob not tonight, yet again after a day of blue skies we now have 70% cloud and getting worse )

PS are you watching the neg Bz at ACE !!!

[astronymonkey]

I prefer the one hour forecast as ive often had my hopes raised and put in a late night to see nothing ... at least one hour isnt that long to wait.

bz is really quite impressive and has been -10 and below for most of the evening. I was wathcning the data feeds on spaceweatherlive and the solar wind density almost went off the scale at 5pm when the cme hit.

all good stuff, lets hope it keeps building up to midnight when the auroral oval is more directed towards us.

cheers

[sologuitarist61]

Shame it is cloudy with rain down here, but then, what's new!

[Ptarmigan]

I prefer the one hour forecast as ive often had my hopes raised and put in a late night to see nothing ... at least one hour isnt that long to wait.

Ok, yes, iswym

but if you hear of owt better - let me know

I am lucky in that my time is my own so 4hrs can be occupied otherwise !

anyway - back to topic -

Yes, I've been watching with fingers xxed since about 4pm when the CME passed ACE

and till a few mins ago it was all looking good, , , but

WingKp 4hr is falling !!!!

oh well, maybe yet another "nearly was"

Good luck , , ,

[astronymonkey]

Thats why I dont like the 4hr forecast ...... the 1 hr one though is now predicting 6.33 and kiruna magnetometer still looking good.... and the aurorawatch mag is now beginng to react which is promising.

[Ptarmigan]

Thats why I dont like the 4hr forecast ...... the 1 hr one though is now predicting 6.33 and kiruna magnetometer still looking good.... and the aurorawatch mag is now beginng to react which is promising.

Fair doos !

6 is good for them in the midlands and north

My turn though -

I dont put much store by Aurorawatch, I (and others) have _seen_ aurora from near Bristol (and elsewhere) when there was nothing on Aurorawatch,

so you pays your money - - and watch them all !

My best is to monitor amateur radio

[astronymonkey]

Just been out and there is a faint glow on the northern horizon, about 15 degrees high and startjng about 10 degrees from the ground. Im in stockton so suggesting a kp of 6ish.

[Helite]

Seeing some pinks and the usual greens coming in and out here in the Moray Firth/North Sea, Been about 3 strong waves come through so far, still a green tinge hanging in there.

[Ptarmigan]

Nice !

Enjoy it whilst you can, ACE much diminished

but Wing4hr back up even 7.3 !

Amateur radios still reporting 59+ Sweden Finland Poland etc. even Ireland<>England 55

[ChrisLX200]

Dammit! Now I wish I'd finished making my all-sky camera

ChrisH

[Mr Bond]

Seen subtle Aurora just North of Beverley. Green verticals, red/ maroon glow. Nice but not dramatic. Gone now, just green band like green skyglow from a town, NNW, about 10 degs up.

[Wazzat]

Hi all,

Best northern lights I have seen for over ten years.  It is still going on now (9.40). The 'curtain' effect in a broad band with lots of movement, some pink colouring, mostly white to me though.  I understand that different folk see colours of it differently.  Also light directly overhead with an effect like searchlights shining down and moving about.  Great.

Good luck.

[jammo]

There's a pic of it on Flickr from Itteringham in Norfolk and Foxly, also in Norfolk

[Paul M]

Right now got low clouds in the north silhouetted against green glow and a bright red glow in the NNW.

Might de-camp to the seafront for a better look. 

[Ptarmigan]

Also light directly overhead with an effect like searchlights shining down and moving about.  Great.

Like looking up a tunnel, like StarTrek warp effect ! ?

Aurora corona

bodes well for strong input and good for effects further south.

I've only seen that once from down here, and pinks were then seen in Italy !

[Ptarmigan]

de-camp to the seafront for a better look. 

Me too, ever hopeful, to the otherside of my hill